Brazilian presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s advantage over President Jair Bolsonaro has increased marginally to 6 percentage points, according to two surveys released on Wednesday.
Both polls were taken between Sunday and Tuesday, and the findings could have been influenced by an incident on Sunday in which Bolsonaro ally Roberto Jefferson shot at police while resisting arrest.
According to a PoderData poll, Lula would receive 53% of valid votes, up from 52% last week, compared to 47% for Bolsonaro, who received 48% in the previous poll.
Genial/Quaest attempted to quantify the influence of abstentions by making a “likely voter” adjustment for probable intentions: it showed Lula with 52.1% of valid votes to Bolsonaro’s 47.9%, a narrower margin than the model showed last week, which showed 52.8% to 47.2%.
On Sunday, Brazilians will vote in the second round of the presidential election.
Following the first-round voting, pollsters were publicly chastised for significantly underestimating Bolsonaro’s popularity.
PoderData polled 5 000 voters by phone, with a margin of error of 1.5 percentage points.
Genial/Quaest conducted in-person interviews with 2 000 respondents, and its poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
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