Max Verstappen’s victory in the Italian Grand Prix put him on the verge of one of the most dominant Formula One world title victories in history.
If he wins and his closest rivals fail to pick up enough points to stay in touch, the Red Bull driver could wrap up the championship in Singapore on October 2nd.
Verstappen has won 11 of 16 races this season and has a 116-point lead over second-placed Charles Leclerc heading to Singapore, the first of six remaining races.
In the five races that follow, there will be a total of 138 points available: five race wins at 25 points each, the fastest lap point at each (provided the driver finishes in the top 10) and eight points for the sprint race winner in Sao Paulo. Verstappen will need to add 22 points to his lead to wrap it up at the first opportunity, despite his unassailable lead in race wins.
That would necessitate a victory in Singapore, as well as Leclerc failing to finish. Six points for a seventh-place finish would keep the Frenchman in contention, and even eighth place and four points would suffice if Verstappen did not set the fastest lap.
That would also mean that Verstappen’s teammate Sergio Perez, who is second in the standings, would need to finish third – or fourth with the fastest lap – to stay in touch.
Fourth-placed George Russell would be eliminated. The Mercedes driver could match Verstappen’s points total if he finished second with the fastest lap, but he couldn’t make up the difference on countback because he hadn’t won a race all season.
Verstappen’s first opportunity comes in race 17 of 22 and would be the earliest in at least 20-race seasons. There have previously been six such campaigns, three of which were won by Lewis Hamilton with two races to spare, and the others were won by Vettel in 2012, Nico Rosberg in 2016, and Verstappen himself last season.
The Dutchman has won 77.5% of the available points this season and could be on track for only the fourth three-figure winning margin in F1 history – though, once again, different point systems play a role, with the previous three belonging to Vettel (155 points in 2013 and 122 points in 2011) and Hamilton (124 points in 2020).
A more accurate comparison is the percentage lead, and Verstappen is currently on a record pace with 53% more points than Leclerc.
Mansell and Jacques Villeneuve won with nearly 48% more points than their closest competitors five years later. Schumacher, Jackie Stewart, and Juan Manuel Fangio all won by more than 40% of the time.
